Conventional wisdom and early polling suggest that Robert F. Kennedy could siphon more votes from Joe Biden than from Donald Trump, given Kennedy’s liberal stances and Democratic family legacy. However, the political landscape has shifted significantly since 2016, blurring party lines and reshaping voter loyalties. This evolution presents a puzzle regarding Kennedy’s potential impact on the upcoming election.
In the past, candidates like Ron Paul attracted crossover support, with many Democrats drawn to his anti-establishment rhetoric. Interestingly, a significant portion of Paul’s supporters later aligned with Trump. The question arises whether these voters, who tend to be disillusioned with traditional politics, would lean towards Kennedy this time around or stick with Trump.
Some political analysts argue that Trump might not benefit as much as expected from Kennedy’s candidacy. On podcasts like the Bulwark’s Focus Group, experts suggest that Kennedy could draw more disaffected Trump voters than disillusioned Democrats. This perspective is bolstered by observations that Biden supporters are more politically engaged and could be swayed to return to the Democratic fold by Election Day.
The essence of Kennedy’s appeal lies in capturing an anti-establishment sentiment that resonates with voters disillusioned by the two-party system. This sentiment, which has grown significantly in recent years, resembles the energy that propelled Trump’s 2016 victory. The question remains whether this energy will translate into votes for Kennedy or if it will predominantly affect Trump’s support base.
As the election approaches, the dynamics of Kennedy’s impact will likely evolve. Voters view Kennedy as a blank slate, projecting their own aspirations onto his candidacy. This opens opportunities for both the Biden and Trump campaigns to shape the narrative around Kennedy and influence how voters perceive his candidacy.
While current polls may not fully capture Kennedy’s effect on individual states, battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina will be crucial in determining the election outcome. How Kennedy’s candidacy resonates in these states, particularly in terms of drawing support from either Trump or Biden, could ultimately sway the electoral college in favor of one candidate over the other.
