Former President Donald Trump is once again pulling ahead in the 2024 presidential race, much to the dismay of the Harris campaign. A recent Polymarket poll shows Trump with a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, standing at 50 to 48 percent. Even more telling is Trump’s stronger foothold in crucial swing states, where his chances of winning are notably higher than Harris’s.
In battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina, Trump’s chances are at 61 percent, leaving Harris trailing at 39 percent. Arizona shows a similar trend, with Trump at a 55 percent chance of victory compared to Harris’s 45 percent. The story repeats in Nevada, where Trump leads with 53 percent to Harris’s 47 percent, and in Pennsylvania, Trump narrowly edges out with 51 percent against Harris’s 49 percent.
Trump’s polling numbers bear a striking resemblance to his 2020 campaign performance. He’s solidifying his base with 65 percent of non-college-educated white voters, 60 percent of rural voters, and an impressive 42 percent of the Hispanic vote—a demographic that Democrats once took for granted.
Pollster Frank Luntz weighed in, noting that Harris’s brief surge in popularity seems to have hit its ceiling. He warned that Harris might be facing the same fate as Hillary Clinton, who also had a narrow lead before Trump handed her a crushing defeat in the 2016 electoral college. “Harris had her moment, but the momentum is shifting back to Trump,” Luntz remarked. “Her current lead is exactly where Clinton stood on Election Day in 2016, and we all know how that turned out.”
In a move that seems more like damage control than a confident stride, the Harris campaign announced her first major interview since Biden’s forced exit and endorsement of her. But here’s the kicker—the interview will be pre-recorded. It’s not hard to see why.
When asked to discuss Trump’s policies, Harris veered off into her usual talking points about diversity and race, failing to provide a clear rebuttal. This doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in voters who are looking for leadership.
Another poll, conducted by Economist/YouGov, painted an even bleaker picture for Harris. The majority of Americans surveyed find her to be dishonest and insincere, while they see Trump as genuine. A striking 53 percent believe Harris only says what she thinks people want to hear, rather than what she actually believes. In contrast, 51 percent of respondents think Trump speaks his mind and 53 percent view him as sincere.
The numbers are telling, and they suggest that while Harris may have had a fleeting moment in the sun, Trump’s unwavering base and consistent message are proving to be formidable obstacles for her campaign.
