A new poll that has a track record for predicting the popular vote with near-perfect accuracy is now projecting that Donald Trump will win by about three points in 2024. While it’s true that in the U.S., winning the popular vote doesn’t always guarantee a ticket to the White House, that’s usually only a problem for Democrats. A Republican pulling ahead in the popular vote pretty much signals a win in the electoral college, too. The numbers seem to back this up for Trump.
The Gallup tracker, which measures party identification as the presidential race heats up, shows Republicans in a strong position. For the third quarter of 2024, 48% of voters identified as Republicans, compared to only 45% identifying as Democrats. That’s the lowest the Democrats have ranked in this poll since 1992. So, it’s not exactly a stretch to say they’re losing ground heading into the final stretch.
Historically, Gallup’s third-quarter findings tend to line up pretty closely with the actual popular vote on election day. Take 2008, for example: Gallup had Democrats leading by eight points, and Barack Obama went on to beat John McCain by just over seven points. Since then, the tracker has rarely been off by more than a percentage point. Given this consistency, it’s hard to ignore the significance of the current numbers, which are making a lot of people on social media conclude that Trump’s three-point lead in the popular vote might just secure him the presidency.
Of course, we all know that the popular vote isn’t the final word in U.S. elections, but it’s worth noting that a Republican winning the popular vote almost always means they’re winning the electoral college, too. It’s the kind of double whammy that Democrats have struggled with in recent cycles. This time, the writing might already be on the wall: Trump’s lead in the popular vote could pave his way back to the Oval Office.
In a political climate where the numbers are this tight, every little edge counts. If these trends hold, Trump isn’t just on track to win the popular vote—he’s looking at a very real chance of securing the electoral college as well. The Democrats might want to brace themselves, because this poll suggests the tide is turning.
Gallup track record is pretty scarily accurate on the national popular vote by tracking PARTY ID/LEAN… and look at what they predict for this election:
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024
🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
🔴 2024: R+3 (?)
Just… pic.twitter.com/9mQnHRBDs8
