It looks like the Democrats are sweating bullets in Pennsylvania. The latest survey from Cygnal, which focuses on Erie and Northampton counties—the so-called “bellwethers” that have correctly picked the winner of every presidential race since 2008—has Donald Trump with a slim lead over Kamala Harris. This one-point margin may not sound like much, but in a state as crucial as Pennsylvania, it’s a sign that Harris’s radical agenda isn’t exactly resonating with traditional Democrat voters. These two counties helped elect Obama, Trump, and Biden, but now it seems they’re swinging back to Trump, and for good reason.
According to the survey, the economy and immigration are the top issues for voters in these swing districts. It’s no surprise that Trump holds a six-point lead over Harris when it comes to handling the economy and an even bigger lead on immigration. People are fed up with open borders and runaway inflation. In fact, Trump is up 15 points on immigration and border security. Harris may hold a slight edge on abortion, but fewer than 20% of voters in these critical areas agree with her extreme stance that abortion should be legal up until birth. So, while she’s banking on that one issue, it’s not enough to make up for her failures elsewhere.
What’s striking is how Harris is trying to paint herself as a moderate. Newsflash: no one’s buying it. Only two in ten voters actually see her as a moderate, and Cygnal’s report highlights the need for the Trump campaign to remind voters just how far-left Harris really is. Half the voters describe her as very liberal, and guess what? Trump wins nearly 90% of those voters. It’s clear that her radical San Francisco agenda is turning people off, even in areas where Democrats once had a firm grip.
In terms of job approval, Trump continues to outshine the Biden-Harris administration. Half of Pennsylvania voters still approve of Trump’s time in office, while less than 40% are happy with how things are going under Biden and Harris. Trump also leads in trust on major issues, has a better favorability rating, and is even doing better with working-class voters. The guy holds a 16% lead with union households and a 13-point advantage with voters making under $100,000 a year. Meanwhile, Harris’s strength is with the college-educated elites and wealthier households—hardly the people feeling the brunt of her policies.
And let’s not ignore the gender divide. Harris is up by 25 points among women, while Trump dominates with men, leading by 29%. The education and wealth gaps are also glaring, with Harris doing well among wealthier and more educated voters, while Trump cleans up with those without a college degree. The real kicker here is that Harris passed over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate in favor of Minnesota’s Tim Walz, reportedly because Shapiro’s stance on Israel wasn’t radical enough for her party. That decision might come back to haunt her, as Shapiro has a plus-14 favorability rating among these key voters, far better than Walz’s meager plus-2.
In a hypothetical matchup where Harris had picked Shapiro, the Democrats would be up by one point, but with Walz on the ticket, it looks like the momentum is swinging Trump’s way. This poll serves as a wake-up call for Harris and the Democrats—if they keep leaning into their far-left policies, Pennsylvania could be out of reach.
