With the 2024 race in a dead heat across key battleground states, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are scrambling to gain the upper hand. The margin for error is razor-thin, and each is looking for that extra boost to push them across the finish line. But it seems like Trump may have found the golden ticket—Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement. Yep, that’s right. The once third-party candidate has thrown his weight behind Trump, and the ripple effect is already showing up in the polls.
According to new data from a survey by American Values ’24 and John Zogby Strategies, Trump holds a commanding 22-point lead over Harris among Kennedy’s former supporters. This shift isn’t just a blip; it’s a game-changer. In five of the six battleground states, Kennedy’s base is leaning toward Trump by anywhere from 20 to 39 points. That’s a huge deal in states where every vote could be the deciding factor. As one Kennedy associate put it, this “Kennedy Cohort” could very well decide the outcome of the 2024 election.
Kennedy’s decision to back Trump didn’t just come out of thin air. After dropping out of the race in August, citing no clear path to victory, Kennedy endorsed Trump’s candidacy and even hinted that he’d be open to a prominent role in a potential second Trump administration. This is the same Kennedy who faced relentless criticism from his own family’s Democratic establishment, not to mention liberal media, particularly over his skepticism of COVID-19 policies. In rejecting the Democratic Party’s treatment of him, Kennedy’s move sends a clear message: he’s not playing by the usual party rules, and his supporters are following suit.
Jeremy Zogby, managing partner of the polling firm behind the survey, noted that Democrats underestimated Kennedy’s influence. According to Zogby, if Democratic strategists had taken Kennedy more seriously from the beginning, they might not be watching his supporters flock to Trump now. In fact, Zogby said many Democrat-leaning journalists have asked him how they could win over a critical mass of Kennedy’s base, and his advice was simple: take him seriously, something the Democratic National Committee clearly failed to do.
The numbers don’t lie. Fifty-six percent of Kennedy’s supporters are now backing Trump, with only 34% sticking with Harris. And while a third of his former backers are still on the fence, they’re open to throwing their support behind Trump. While this might not shift the national landscape dramatically, it’s a massive deal in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—where every vote could tip the balance.
