Rural Georgia seems to be outpacing the big blue counties in early voting turnout this election cycle, a trend that’s likely causing some nail-biting in Democratic circles. According to the latest state data, early voting numbers are strongest in areas that went solidly for Donald Trump in 2020, particularly in rural counties like Towns, Oconee, and Rabun. These small but fiery red counties have posted turnout rates that would make any campaign manager swoon — with around 69%, 65%, and 64% of active voters already casting their ballots, respectively.
Towns County voters, for instance, have pushed early turnout nearly 15% above the Georgia county average, beating out even suburban and urban strongholds. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that these rates are eclipsing turnout in more populated, Democrat-leaning areas like Fulton County — home to Atlanta — and neighboring blue-leaning counties like Cobb and Gwinnett. While Fulton County has seen just over 53% of active voters cast ballots early, the more rural, traditionally conservative areas are closing in on or surpassing that turnout pace.
The early voting records in Georgia have already shattered expectations since the first ballots were cast on October 15. As of mid-week, Georgia election officials announced that more than half of the state’s active voters had already cast their ballots, a pace that could bring the state close to its total 2020 turnout by Election Day. This shift in rural enthusiasm suggests that the Republican message is resonating, at least among their core supporters in these Trump-leaning counties.
Of course, sheer numbers still lean heavily in favor of Georgia’s urban, Democrat-voting hubs. In Fulton County alone, close to 385,000 voters have already participated in early voting, compared to under 7,000 early voters in Towns County. Nevertheless, the spike in early turnout in rural Republican areas could signal a meaningful shift in traditional turnout patterns. Typically, early voting is thought to favor Democrats, with Republicans historically making a big showing on Election Day itself. This cycle, however, might challenge that assumption as rural conservatives flock to the polls well before November 5.
For Republicans and Trump supporters, these numbers are likely a welcome sight, offering a potential counter to the longstanding belief that early voting primarily benefits Democrats. In the end, the rural turnout surge might just be the spark Republicans need to challenge the assumptions that have long guided election-day predictions.