Bellwether counties have long been the political weathervanes of America, reflecting national sentiment with uncanny accuracy. Since 1984, these pivotal regions have consistently picked the winning presidential candidate—except, of course, in the controversial 2020 election. That year, Donald Trump managed to carry a jaw-dropping 94% of bellwether counties, yet somehow lost the presidency to Joe Biden. For a pattern that had held steady for decades, the sudden deviation was enough to set off alarm bells and raise more than a few skeptical eyebrows.
Take Valencia County, New Mexico, for instance. This county had voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1952, solidifying its status as a bellwether juggernaut. In 2020, Valencia chose Trump, as did 18 other historically accurate counties. It was a repeat of Trump’s 2016 success when he won these counties and the presidency with a solid mandate. Yet, despite this overwhelming endorsement from the bellwether regions, Biden somehow emerged victorious. Critics argue that the disconnect defies historical precedent, raising questions about whether this was simply an improbable statistical anomaly—or something far more concerning.
Fast forward to 2024, and the bellwether counties snapped back to their predictive norms, once again aligning with the winning candidate—save for two exceptions. The abrupt return to form in these traditionally reliable areas only amplifies the peculiar nature of the 2020 election. How does one explain the sudden failure of a decades-old trend, only for it to seamlessly resume four years later? In 2020, Biden managed to win just one bellwether county, a result so out of sync with historical patterns that it continues to fuel speculation about irregularities in that election cycle.
Looking at past elections underscores just how extraordinary the 2020 deviation was. Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide saw him win every single bellwether county, securing 49 states and a record-breaking 525 Electoral College votes. George H.W. Bush followed in 1988, capturing 88% of bellwether counties alongside 40 states. Bill Clinton maintained the streak in 1992 and 1996, even achieving a clean sweep in his re-election bid. George W. Bush and Barack Obama similarly benefited from bellwether support during their campaigns. Then came 2020, when Trump’s dominance in these critical regions inexplicably failed to translate into a national victory, disrupting a 36-year streak and leaving many to wonder what exactly happened.
The restoration of the bellwether trend in 2024 further highlights the oddities of 2020. Biden’s performance in these counties—winning just one—remains a glaring outlier in an otherwise consistent pattern. For those scrutinizing the results, the question is clear: how can a candidate lose nearly all predictive counties yet sweep both the popular vote and the Electoral College? The stark contrast between 2020 and 2024 suggests that the predictive power of bellwethers wasn’t broken but momentarily overridden. For skeptics, the 2020 results continue to raise serious concerns about anomalies and irregularities that warrant deeper investigation, especially in light of the bellwether counties’ near-flawless track record.
