Democrat pollsters are beginning to sound the alarm, worried that their recent polling might be as shaky as it was during past elections, particularly when it comes to gauging support for former President Donald Trump. Their track record isn’t exactly confidence-inspiring, considering the polling missteps in 2020 when the results turned out to be much closer than their numbers predicted, leaving many in the party in a state of disbelief.
Back in 2020, despite the constant media drumbeat suggesting a significant Biden victory, Trump nearly pulled off another upset. The closer-than-expected result created what Politico described as an “oh, shit” moment for the Democrat pollsters. Even worse, predictions of a blue wave in the House didn’t pan out. Instead of expanding their majority, Democrats saw it shrink, much to their dismay.
This polling debacle has led to an unusual development among the typically competitive Democratic polling firms: they’ve decided to team up in an attempt to fix what’s clearly a broken system. But the lingering question remains: can they really trust their numbers this time around?
As Vice President Kamala Harris inches closer to Trump in the latest polls, there’s still a cloud of doubt hanging over the Democrat polling community. They’re asking themselves, “Is her surge real, or are we just repeating the same mistakes?” Despite any gains Harris might be making, Democrat strategists acknowledge that Trump’s unique appeal—something polls have struggled to capture—still gives him significant advantages.
Take a recent poll from Navigator Research, which found Trump and Harris neck-and-neck in key swing states. When it comes to qualities voters generally prioritize—like leadership and readiness for the job—Trump appears to have the edge. This, coupled with the knowledge that polling has underestimated Trump in the past, has some Democrats worried that history might repeat itself.
Even after all this self-reflection and attempts to fine-tune their methods, leading pollsters admit they’re still not entirely confident they’ve solved the problem. As Nick Gourevitch of Global Strategy Group put it, no pollster in the country can say with certainty that they’ve fixed the issues. That’s quite a confession, especially as the 2024 election looms.
In an attempt to tackle these uncertainties, Democrat pollsters ran a months-long experiment in Wisconsin. They weren’t trying to predict an election but rather to understand how different approaches to reaching voters might affect their results. What they found wasn’t exactly reassuring: traditional polling tends to capture the opinions of more politically engaged voters, which doesn’t necessarily represent the broader electorate, especially in high-turnout elections like a presidential race.
Given these concerns, many Democrats are quietly tempering their optimism as they head into the 2024 campaign season. Despite all the effort to correct past mistakes, there’s still a nagging worry that their polls might once again underestimate Trump. And while they’re not entirely sure why that might be, the prospect is enough to keep them up at night.
