Joe Biden’s troubles just got a whole lot deeper.
It’s no secret that traditionally blue states have been getting more competitive. Minnesota and Virginia have been tight for a while, with some pollsters and pundits even calling them battleground states. New Hampshire and New Mexico are also now in play.
But the real shocker? Democrats are now sweating over New York—a state that should be safely in their column.
According to Politico, “Elected officials, union leaders, and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago.” They’re desperately trying to convince the Biden team to pump resources into New York to bolster his campaign and support Democrats in a handful of swing districts that could determine control of the House.
Yet, Biden’s aides have largely ignored New York, assuming the president would easily secure all 28 of its electoral college votes in November.
The warning signs, however, are impossible to ignore and have been flashing for over a year. Two private polls conducted in a New York swing House district, one in September and another in March, found former President Donald Trump leading Biden by 1 point—a virtual tie. Public polls over the last four months show Biden’s lead shrinking to just 8 points statewide, an alarmingly narrow margin in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine told Politico. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
Back in April, Trump hinted at making a play for New York, given how close the race is. “We’re very close in New York, I understand,” he said. “We’re leading the country by a lot. A poll just came out a little while ago, as you saw yesterday that we have—we’re up in every swing state and up by a lot in every swing state. So I think we’re gonna do very well, and we’re gonna make a play for New York.”
Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) even suggested last month that Trump has a shot at winning New York, citing an Emerson College poll showing Trump down just six points in a head-to-head match-up. “President Trump is actually closer now at this point of this campaign than I was two years at this point of the governor’s race,” Zeldin claimed. “The state is continuing to shift right, and interestingly enough, a couple of weeks ago, I looked at the updated voter registration data for the state, yet one might think that a whole bunch of Republicans, conservatives have just given up and left the state— well turns out that the Democratic party registration is down over a hundred-thousand, while the Republican registration’s up, the conservative party registration is up, and people who are non-affiliated voters — it’s also up.”
Biden is still the favorite to win New York for now, but if he has to spend resources to defend it, he’ll likely need to divert them from other states he was hoping to flip. For instance, Biden’s team was eyeing North Carolina, but if they’re scrambling to save New York, they won’t waste time on North Carolina, where Trump holds a 5.8-point lead according to the RealClearPolitics average.
