Republicans are downright thrilled as early voting data from Pennsylvania seems to be shaping up in Donald Trump’s favor, giving them reason to believe he could secure this crucial swing state. For Kamala Harris, who absolutely can’t afford to lose Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, the early numbers are making Democrats increasingly uneasy. Many see Pennsylvania as the kingmaker state, and the math doesn’t lie: if Trump clinches it, his chances of taking the presidency shoot up to a whopping 96 percent.
Now, Harris does have an early voting lead in the state, showing a 410,000-vote advantage over Trump as of “Election Eve.” Registered Democrats have cast 997,450 ballots compared to Republicans’ 587,546, with 205,323 ballots coming from independents. On paper, this gives Harris a tidy 25-point edge over Trump. But context is everything, and a glance back at the 2020 election reveals a glaring gap in Democratic early turnout this time around.
In 2020, early voting Democrats turned in 1,702,484 ballots, meaning Harris is lagging over 700,000 votes behind Joe Biden’s numbers at the same stage. Meanwhile, Republican early voting counts in Pennsylvania have only dipped slightly from 623,404 in 2020 to 587,546 this year. Republicans are taking this as a strong signal that Harris’s turnout machine may be sputtering.
Naturally, the mood among Democrats is shifting from confident to concerned, and they’ve begun whispering anxiously about Harris’s early voting performance. Meanwhile, Republicans are seeing these numbers as a reason to celebrate. For them, it’s not just a sign that Trump could win Pennsylvania but also a potential shift in momentum across other swing states.
As always, the real outcome hinges on voter turnout through Election Day. No amount of early voting data can guarantee victory, and both sides are making one thing clear: if you want your candidate in office, get to the polls and vote!
PA Ballots RETURNED 11/04:
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 4, 2024
Dems: 997,450 (55.7%) +7,261 from 11.03
GOP: 587,546 (32.8%) +3,755 from 11.03
Indie: 205,323 (11.5%) +2,284 from 11.03
Change from end of 2022:
GOP: +323,896
Dem: +140,170
Change from end of 2020:
GOP: -30,692
Dem: -721,276 https://t.co/xgK5ag0CdK pic.twitter.com/DaFsI5HrC0
