There’s been a lot of noise about who came out on top in Tuesday’s presidential debate—both in terms of style and substance. But at the end of the day, the winner isn’t the one who can make the weirdest faces or toss out the most clever one-liner. It’s the one who can sway the undecided voters and independents, and Kamala Harris fell short on that front.
Kamala had a real problem: she needed to define herself, something President Donald Trump doesn’t have to worry about. Independent voters were looking for Harris to show how she’s different from Joe Biden, whose policies have been less than popular. They wanted to hear what her vision was for the future. Did they get that? Not so much. As I’ve mentioned before, focus groups from CBS and Reuters made it clear—voters didn’t feel like they got the answers they were hoping for. Even CNN had to admit that Trump picked up points on the issues people care about most, leading Harris by 20 points on the economy, 23 points on immigration, and six points on leadership as commander-in-chief. Despite ABC’s terribly biased moderators, even their own reporters had to acknowledge Harris failed to deliver.
One ABC reporter pointed out that Harris didn’t even bother answering whether people are better off now than they were four years ago. Not a great look when you’re supposed to be offering change.
But perhaps the most revealing insights came from Lee Carter, pollster and president of Maslansky + Partners, who broke it all down on Fox’s The Faulkner Focus. Using dial monitors, she tracked how voters reacted to both Harris and Trump during the debate. Her focus group consisted of seven Democrats, five independents, and five Republicans. The interesting part? The independents’ reactions mirrored those of Republicans much more than expected.
When Trump brought up rising crime caused by illegal immigration, the independents were right there with the Republicans, with both groups’ lines spiking in his favor. “I was really, really surprised because the intensity of the independent support was there for Donald Trump, and I didn’t expect it,” Carter admitted on Wednesday’s show.
What independents are clearly looking for are answers on immigration and the economy. They want to know how things will get better for them. And most importantly, they want a change from what’s happening now. They were waiting for Harris to tell them how she’s going to make things different, but she didn’t deliver.
Then there was the moment when Harris accused Trump of having no plan other than giving tax breaks to the wealthy. The independents and Republicans weren’t buying it, and the lines plummeted. Her claim that economists said her plan was better while Trump’s would cause more inflation? That took some nerve, considering her role in causing the record inflation we’re all dealing with now.
When Trump addressed the economy, the independent and Republican lines shot up. People clearly liked what he was saying, especially when he talked about how the Biden-Harris administration wrecked the economy and tied it to the rising prices of bacon and eggs. Harris’s claims about fracking didn’t land with the independents either. Trump nailed her on her extreme positions—whether it was defunding the police, gender transition surgeries for illegal aliens, rising crime, or abortion. All of it hit home.
But the most impactful moment was Trump’s closing. He asked the one question that Harris just couldn’t answer: if she’s been in office for over three years, why hasn’t she done any of the things she’s now promising? And that, right there, was the moment the independents started walking away from her.
