Former President Donald Trump is absolutely dominating Vice President Kamala Harris among working-class voters, a trend that mirrors the lead he held over President Joe Biden just a few months ago. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in early September 2024, Trump is ahead of Harris by a whopping 17 points among non-college-educated voters, with 56 percent to her 39 percent. It’s becoming clear that Harris is struggling to win over the very demographic that could decide the next election.
This result isn’t all that surprising, considering the poll from June showed Trump had a strong lead over Biden among the same group of working-class voters. Back then, Trump had a 54 percent to 37 percent advantage, and it seems like Harris hasn’t been able to close that gap since stepping in as the Democratic nominee. Ruy Teixeira, a political scientist and co-founder of the Liberal Patriot newsletter, pointed out in a recent analysis that Harris is doing even worse than Biden did with key sub-demographics of working-class voters, which spells big trouble for the Democrats.
Teixeira’s analysis dug deeper into the numbers and revealed that Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 numbers by 10 points among white working-class voters and an even more concerning 18 points among nonwhite working-class voters. Even though Harris has improved somewhat among nonwhite voters since Biden dropped out, it’s nowhere near enough to close the gap. Democrats are going to have a tough time spinning this—working-class voters make up a huge chunk of the electorate, far more than the college-educated base that Harris seems to appeal to.
It’s worth noting that working-class Americans are expected to make up around two-thirds of eligible voters in the 2024 election, and they will still represent a dominant force in actual voter turnout, around three-fifths. This is especially true in crucial swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where the working-class share of the electorate is higher than the national average. In other words, Harris can win over the elites all she wants, but if she can’t turn things around with working-class voters, she’s in for a rough ride.
Nationally, the same Times/Siena College poll showed a close race, with Trump holding a slight edge over Harris, 48 percent to 47 percent. While it’s a tighter margin than the lead Trump had over Biden in June, it’s still clear that the economy and immigration are top of mind for working-class voters. These two issues, highlighted as the most important by 22 percent and 15 percent of respondents, will likely play a key role in deciding the election. And as Breitbart’s Neil Munro pointed out, the Biden administration’s handling of immigration—seen as a way to expand the low-wage economy—is only adding fuel to the fire.
