The “Kari Lake in elected office” experiment appears to have run its course. After unsuccessful attempts at securing the governorship of Arizona and a seat in the U.S. Senate, Lake’s chapter as a candidate has come to an end—at least for now. However, her political ambitions may not be entirely shelved. According to reports, Lake is now the leading candidate to become the next U.S. ambassador to Mexico under President-elect Donald Trump. For someone who has thrived on controversy and a hardline approach, the role might seem like an odd fit—or, depending on your perspective, a perfectly chaotic match.
Lake, who earned Trump’s endorsement during her failed bids for office, has built her political identity around being a staunch ally of the president-elect. She’s been an unapologetic advocate for stringent border security and has echoed Trump’s claims about the 2020 election being stolen. Despite her best efforts to reshape her public image during her recent Senate campaign—toning down some of her more polarizing positions, particularly on abortion—she still fell short against Democrat Ruben Gallego. Her refusal to acknowledge her 2022 gubernatorial loss to Katie Hobbs has only added to her reputation as a polarizing figure.
Should she become the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Lake would find herself in a high-stakes diplomatic role requiring finesse and strategic thinking—two qualities critics argue she has yet to demonstrate. She would be tasked with navigating thorny issues like migration, counter-narcotics, and Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexican imports. Given the complexities of U.S.-Mexico relations and the challenges of working with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, this position could test Lake’s ability to pivot from campaign theatrics to substantive diplomacy. Whether she’s up for that challenge is anyone’s guess.
The road to confirmation, however, is likely to be rocky. With a closely divided Senate, Lake can afford no more than three Republican defections if she hopes to secure the position. Securing even that slim margin could be tricky, given her history of antagonizing moderate and establishment GOP lawmakers—whom she’s often labeled as part of the “swamp.” While some reports suggest she’s been making efforts to patch things up with these factions, it’s unclear whether her attempts will be enough to overcome skepticism from within her own party. As for Democrats, their support is about as likely as a snowstorm in Phoenix.
For Trump, nominating Lake could serve multiple purposes. On one hand, it positions a loyalist in a critical diplomatic role, reinforcing his border-focused agenda. On the other, it might be a loyalty test of sorts—a way to see which Republicans are willing to fall in line with his administration’s choices. Whether this is a serious nomination or more political theater, it’s clear that Kari Lake’s political journey is far from over. For better or worse, her next act promises to be as contentious as her first.
