The Cook Political Report, which is usually pretty neutral, just made six changes to its Electoral College ratings that seem to favor Trump. It looks like the former president is gaining some ground.
Trump is now slightly ahead of Biden in a hypothetical November election matchup. He was only leading by a little over a point nationally before the presidential debate, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. Now, he’s up by three points nationally.
The Cook report shifted Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from toss-ups to “leaning Republican.” Meanwhile, Minnesota and New Hampshire were downgraded from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.” Even a district in Nebraska, which isn’t a winner-take-all state, moved from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
Cook’s editor-in-chief Amy Walters pointed out that even though these changes favor Trump, he’s still about as unpopular as Biden and Kamala Harris. But Biden faces a bigger challenge in convincing voters that he’s physically up to the job.
“Biden’s weak debate performance raises doubts about whether he can effectively deliver his message to already skeptical voters,” Walters wrote. “Biden’s challenge isn’t just to convince voters that he can win or that his policies are better than Trump’s. He has to show that he’s physically and mentally capable of governing for another four years.”
It’s worth remembering that Biden won Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia in the 2020 presidential elections.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are still listed as toss-ups in the report, but Trump is polling strongest in Pennsylvania, where he’s currently leading Biden by five percentage points, according to RCP.
